MCX Gold Forecast
This Week

MCX Gold is trading at ₹131,124 per 10 grams, reflecting a bearish bias after a week of losses. The precious metal has been pressured by a stronger US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, which weighed on XAU/USD. Domestically, the rupee's stability around 83.50 against the dollar offered little support. Technical indicators align with the bearish sentiment: RSI(14) at 33 suggests oversold conditions but no reversal signal yet, while MACD remains below its signal line. The EMA20 is below EMA50, confirming a downtrend. Last week, gold broke below key support at ₹128,773, but managed to recover slightly. Sentiment remains cautious ahead of major events, including the RBI MPC Minutes and US FOMC Statement. Indian physical demand remains subdued due to high prices and the ongoing monsoon season, though festive buying is still months away.

This week, three key drivers will shape MCX Gold. First, the RBI MPC Minutes on Monday will provide insights into the central bank's stance on inflation and interest rates, impacting USD/INR. A hawkish tone could strengthen the rupee, making gold cheaper for Indian buyers. Second, the US FOMC Statement on Wednesday is critical; any hint of further rate hikes or a hawkish dot plot will boost the dollar, pressuring gold. Third, US Initial Jobless Claims and PMI Flash data will offer clues on US economic health, influencing Fed policy expectations. Domestically, India's gold import duty at ~15% continues to inflate local prices, while RBI's gold reserves remain steady. Seasonal demand is low, but any dip below ₹128,000 could trigger bargain buying ahead of Akshaya Tritiya next year.

The immediate support for MCX Gold lies at ₹128,773, a level that held last week after a brief breach. A decisive break below this could open the door to the lower end of the weekly range at ₹128,072, with psychological support at ₹128,000. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹134,939, near the weekly high of ₹134,176. A close above this resistance would signal a potential reversal of the bearish trend, targeting ₹135,500. However, with RSI at 33 and MACD bearish, the path of least resistance remains down. Traders should watch these levels closely, as a break below support may accelerate selling, while a bounce from support could lead to a short-term recovery.

The weekly outlook for MCX Gold remains bearish, with the metal likely to test support at ₹128,773. The bearish EMA crossover and MACD signal suggest downward momentum. However, RSI at 33 indicates oversold conditions, so a technical bounce cannot be ruled out, especially if the US FOMC delivers a less hawkish than expected statement. Key events to monitor: RBI MPC Minutes on Monday, US FOMC on Wednesday, and US Jobless Claims on Thursday. A hawkish Fed could push gold below ₹128,000, while a dovish surprise might lift it towards ₹134,000. Indian traders should also watch USD/INR; a weaker rupee could cushion losses. Overall, expect volatility, with a likely range of ₹128,072 to ₹134,176. Stay cautious and manage risk around these events.