EUR/USD Forecast
This Week

EUR/USD closed the week at 1.1206, with a bearish bias as the pair trades below both the EMA20 and EMA50. The weekly range is estimated at 1.1119–1.1292, and the RSI(14) at 13.1 signals deeply oversold conditions, yet MACD remains below its signal line, confirming bearish momentum. Last week, the euro was pressured by a broadly stronger US dollar amid expectations of a hawkish FOMC stance. For Indian traders, this pair matters indirectly via EUR/INR, which is derived from EUR/USD and USD/INR. With the EU being India's largest trade partner, a weaker EUR/USD makes European goods cheaper for Indian importers but reduces competitiveness for Indian exporters to the EU. Sentiment remains cautious ahead of key central bank events.

The most critical event for Indian markets this week is the RBI MPC Minutes on Monday at 14:00 IST, which will shape USD/INR expectations and thus EUR/INR. Any hawkish tone could support the rupee, indirectly capping EUR/INR gains even if EUR/USD rises. On Wednesday at 18:00 IST, the US FOMC Statement dominates; a hawkish Fed would strengthen the dollar, pushing EUR/USD lower and benefiting Indian importers paying in euros. Thursday's US Initial Jobless Claims at 18:30 IST will offer clues on US labour market health, affecting USD/INR and FII flows. Finally, Friday's US PMI Flash at 18:00 IST will gauge economic momentum, influencing EUR/USD and gold prices on MCX. Indian traders should watch these events for volatility in EUR/INR cross rates.

Immediate support sits at 1.1201, just below the current rate of 1.1206. A decisive break below this level could accelerate losses toward the weekly low estimate of 1.1119, as bearish momentum remains intact. On the upside, resistance at 1.1314 caps gains; a break above would signal a potential reversal, targeting the weekly high of 1.1292 and beyond. However, with RSI deeply oversold, a bounce cannot be ruled out. For Indian traders, these levels translate into EUR/INR thresholds; a break below 1.1201 may see EUR/INR test lower support, affecting importers' hedging costs.

The bearish bias persists, with EUR/USD likely to test support at 1.1201 early in the week. The FOMC statement on Wednesday is the pivotal event; a hawkish outcome could push the pair toward 1.1119, while a dovish surprise might trigger a rebound toward 1.1314. Indian traders should monitor the RBI MPC Minutes for USD/INR cues, as any rupee volatility will impact EUR/INR cross rates. Thursday's jobless claims and Friday's PMI flash will add to volatility. Given the oversold RSI, expect choppy price action with potential for sharp reversals. Key levels to watch: 1.1201 support and 1.1314 resistance. Position sizing should account for heightened event risk.